Effects of migration network configuration and migration synchrony on infection prevalence in geese.

摘要: Migration can influence dynamics of pathogen-host interactions. However, it is not clearly known how migration pattern, in terms the configuration network and synchrony migration, affects infection prevalence. We therefore applied a discrete-time SIR model, integrating environmental transmission to various networks, including networks with serial, parallel, or both serial parallel stopover sites, levels synchrony. model avian influenza virus migratory geese population. In only increasing number sites reduced prevalence, because every new site, amount environment was lower than that previous thereby reducing exposure earlier appearance led an peak prevalence population, population exposed larger total environment, speeding-up accumulation. Furthermore, higher average cumulative infection, majority fly site where still relatively low has been increased due shedding infected birds. Our simulations indicate pattern multiple highly synchronized reduces