Cyclical and secular determinants of productivity in the copper, aluminum, iron ore, and coal industries

摘要: Over the past decade, both labor and multifactor productivity have fallen in copper, iron ore, coal, many other mining operations, causing production costs to rise. This decline, following years of rising productivity, has led conclude that new technology can no longer offset adverse effects resource depletion. As a result, real mineral commodity prices will be permanently higher future. article questions this hypothesis. It first provides conceptual analysis shows much or perhaps even all recent drop could due unanticipated growth market demand sharp jump it provoked. then surveys number available empirical studies trends. For finds substantial support for view attributed prices. Aluminum on hand did not experience same price over 2000s nor suffer significant productivity. These findings important implications. In particular, they suggest may well continue most cost-increasing If so, lower long run than now assume. possibility consequences mineral-producing firms making large investments future capacity, countries dependent revenues from mining, society as whole terms long-run availability nonrenewable commodities threat