Climate model emulation in an integrated assessment framework: a case study for mitigation policies in the electricity sector

摘要: Abstract. We present a carbon-cycle–climate modelling framework using model emulation, designed for integrated assessment modelling, which introduces new emulator of the carbon cycle (GENIEem). demonstrate that GENIEem successfully reproduces CO2 concentrations Representative Concentration Pathways when forced with corresponding emissions and non-CO2 forcing. To its application as part framework, we use along an climate (PLASIM-ENTSem) to evaluate global concentration levels spatial temperature precipitation response patterns resulting from emission scenarios. These scenarios are modelled macroeconometric (E3MG) coupled technology substitution dynamics (FTT), represent different reduction policies applied solely in electricity sector, without mitigation rest economy. The effect cascading uncertainty is apparent, but despite uncertainties, it clear all scenarios, mean temperatures excess 2 °C above pre-industrial projected by end century. Our approach also highlights regional associated change occurring these enabling more robust impacts emphasizing necessity focusing on addition change.