Vulnerability of rice production in the Inner Niger Delta to water resources management under climate variability and change

摘要: This manuscript investigates the vulnerability of food security in terms floating rice production Inner Niger Delta to upstream water resources management (reservoir management) and population growth under climate change variability time period 2011–2050. Reservoir have large impacts on inflow patterns into thus extent duration flooded surface area, which turn is closely linked ecological integrity, livelihoods, within delta region. A assessment concept, developed framework WETwin project, used investigate existing planned dams demands supply different scenarios. The balance inundation were simulated using a process-based eco-hydrological modelling system equipped with an module reservoir module. Both projected lead significant reduction peak discharges during rainy season hence serious losses potential agricultural areas Delta. effectiveness extension irrigated Delta, order mitigate suitable for rice, was investigated as adaptive measure. land use fulfils increasing some scenarios, but at expense other ecosystem services has be critically questioned.