Estimating Export Activity in a Regional Economy: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis of Alternative Methods

摘要: Four methods of estimating exports are widely used in regional analysis, particularly with the economic base model. The theoretical rationales for each examined. An interpretation minimum requirement method is offered which solves oft-noted, non-importation problem. difference between and location quotient estimates proven not to be an estimate imports as believed, a relatively new econometric shown over-estimate exports. Estimates calculated 101 metropolitan areas United States. Both empirical evidence indicates that underestimates, yet produced lower 22 areas. results suggest choice estimation may affect sub-sequent analyses.