12 May 2008 M = 7.9 Wenchuan, China, earthquake calculated to increase failure stress and seismicity rate on three major fault systems

作者: Shinji Toda , Jian Lin , Mustapha Meghraoui , Ross S. Stein

DOI: 10.1029/2008GL034903

关键词: PlateauChinaFar EastFault (geology)Longmen shanGeologySeismologyForeshockInduced seismicity

摘要: [1] The Wenchuan earthquake on the Longmen Shan fault zone devastated cities of Sichuan, claiming at least 69,000 lives. We calculate that also brought Xianshuihe, Kunlun and Min Jiang faults 150–400 km from mainshock rupture in eastern Tibetan Plateau 0.2–0.5 bars closer to Coulomb failure. Because some portions these stressed have not ruptured more than a century, could trigger or hasten additional M > 7 earthquakes, potentially subjecting regions Kangding Daofu Maqin Rangtag strong shaking. use calculated stress changes observed background seismicity forecast rate distribution damaging shocks. The probability region is estimated be 57–71% for ≥ 6 shocks during next decade, 8–12% These are up twice probabilities decade before struck.

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