A multi-species modelling approach to examine the impact of alternative climate change adaptation strategies on range shifting ability in a fragmented landscape

摘要: An individual-based model of animal dispersal and population dynamics was used to test the effects different climate change adaptation strategies on species range shifting ability, namely improvement existing habitat, restoration low quality habitat creation new habitat. These were implemented a landscape typical fragmentation in United Kingdom using spatial rules differentiate between allocation adjacent or away from patches. The total area being managed set at realistic levels based recent management trends. Eight parameterised broadly represent stage structure, densities modes dispersal. Simulations initialised with occupying 20% run for 100 years. As would be expected real taxa, abilities dramatically different. This translated into large differences their responses strategies. With conservative (0.5%) estimates prescribed adaptation, few display noticeable improvements shifting, demonstrating need greater investment future adaptation. larger (1%) area, found, although results still species-specific. It found that increasing size small patches best way promote stepping stone features, whilst beneficial some species, did not have such broad effect across species.