Deforestation displaced: trade in forest-risk commodities and the prospects for a global forest transition

摘要: While many developed countries are increasing their forest cover, deforestation is still rife in the tropics and subtropics. With international trade forest-risk commodities on rise, it becoming increasingly important to consider between-country linkages assessing drivers of-and possible connections between-forest loss gain across countries. Previous studies have shown that undergone a transition (and now cover) tend displace land use outside borders. However, lack of comprehensive data imply has not been ascertain whether this accelerated sourcing To remedy this, we present land-balance model quantifies embodied production agricultural forestry at country level subtropics, subsequently tracing apparent consumption using physical, country-to-country model. We find period 2005-2013,62% (5.5 Mha yr(-1)) could be attributed expanding commercial cropland, pastures tree plantations. The commodity groups most commonly associated with were cattle meat, products, oil palm, cereals soybeans, though variation between regions was large. Alarge (26%) slightly share demand, bulk which (87%) exported either exhibit decreasing rates or cover (late-or post-forest countries), particularly Europe Asia (China, India, Russia). About third net gains way offset by imports causing elsewhere, suggesting achieving global will substantially more challenging than national regional ones.