Evaluation of ecological effects of anthropogenic nutrient loading scenarios in Los Molinos reservoir through a mathematical model

摘要: Abstract In this paper we perform a scenario analysis to assess the likely ecosystem structural shifts that might be induced by seven alternative management scenarios relative current simulated lake dynamics of Los Molinos reservoir, monomictic located in Argentina. To carry out analysis, first, formulate, calibrate and validate mechanistic biogeochemical model characterize nutrients phytoplankton reservoir under study. The includes set partial differential algebraic equations, which results from dynamic mass balances on main groups, nutrients, dissolved oxygen biochemical demand oxygen. We consider sources nutrient loading dominant groups. parameter estimation is constrained optimization problem has been formulated within an equation oriented control vector parameterization environment. estimated sixteen parameters, previously identified as most influential ones. Numerical for calibration validation phases show good agreement with field data, then, use proposed prospective tool. obtained designed indicate importance impacts livestock practices sewage/collective septic tanks discharges water quality. Model predictions combination reduction sewage residential areas shore, implementation measures mitigate exports production will render beneficial effects over studied ecosystem, thus promoting improvement ecological state reservoir. This first time such approach applied study catchment. Thus, constitutes tool anthropogenic freshwater resource.