Historical Scenarios as a Tool of Anticipatory Action Learning: Climate Adaptation, Futures Thinking, and Historical Memory

摘要: This paper reflects on the report "Societal Responses to Significant Change: An Historical Analysis" an early deliverable in Australian Government funded South East Queensland Climate Adaptation Research Initiative (SEQCARI). Societal Change reviewed 33 case studies developed by 12 researchers that illustrate range of contextual responses change order better understand historical precedents for human adaptive capacity. Both major sudden and incremental are considered. No particular priority is given climate as capacity not restricted issues alone but a generic response environmental, social, political economic change. Social learning does occur vacuum. The profiling significant illustrates how factors contribute society's success or failure. These profiles take form scenarios ground reflection future societies institutions have responded challenges past. offered this intended clarify interplay these scale elicit from stakeholder groups part ongoing work SEQCARI project. Jim Dator's scenario archetypes continued growth, collapse, disciplined society transformation used stimulate thinking participants project encounter groups.