Assessing the sensitivity of a Mediterranean commercial rangeland to droughts under climate change scenarios by means of a multidisciplinary integrated model

摘要: Abstract Rangeland productivity is strongly conditioned by the amount and temporal distribution of precipitation. Thus, worsening droughts with climate change could be a serious threat to their existence. This paper presents modelling study aimed at evaluating sensitivity valuable type commercial rangelands, namely Spanish dehesas, increases in frequency intensity driven change. The assessment consisted multi-way ANOVA carried out on basis 5400 simulations multidisciplinary integrated model. It included two blocking factors linked scenarios, Representative Concentration Pathway downscaling method, treatment factors, return period severity droughts. levels all were as part simulation scenarios. response variables constituted summary model's behaviour throughout one simulation. They average profits per farmer stocking rate, both calculated over entire period, remaining soil depth end effects small for blocks, thereby suggesting that sensitivity, thus vulnerability, dehesas would low under Farmers defined conservative model simulations, is, they minimized changes size herds bought supplementary feed meet shortfalls livestock unless it was excessively expensive. we conclude this group strategy explain adaptive capacity shows models are learning tools acquire insights into relationships between climate, ecologic socio-economic factors. Although there recurrent call holistic studies, still rare rangeland literature. Hopefully, will motivate some researchers consider approach.