Simulation of natural capital and ecosystem services in a watershed in Northern Japan focusing on the future underuse of nature: by linking forest landscape model and social scenarios

摘要: A quantitative scenario approach to compare the future state of natural capital and ecosystem services (ESs) plays a key role in facilitating decision-making for sustainable management landscapes. In Japan, shrinking aging population will likely lead situation underuse resources, resulting rewilding terrestrial ecosystems. This study conducted analysis ESs by linking model social scenarios on local scale. The case area was Bekanbeushi River Watershed Northern Japan. LANDIS-II (a forest landscape model) used simulate vegetation dynamics species composition, age structure, biomass considering impacts pasture land management. Four “population distribution” “capital preference” were translated into distribution preference assumptions resulted different consequences ESs. affected spatial allocation abandoned level isolation managed land. largely Finally, these simulation results demonstrated capacity feed information narrative scenarios. Our process-based provides insight relationships among drivers, ecological processes, that affect ESs, which can contribute sustainability design regions, may face issues associated with future.