Assessing the Potential Impact of Climate Change on Rice Yield in the Artibonite Valley of Haiti Using the CSM-CERES-Rice Model

摘要: Highlights Rice yield decreased in the spring-summer and summer-autumn seasons increased winter-spring season. The average annual rice Artibonite Valley is expected to decrease. MarkSim climate data linked with DSSAT provide a means simulate change impacts on crop yield. Abstract. (Oryza sativa) one of major crops world most consumed agricultural products Haiti, main production area Valley. Crop management, poor soil conditions, weather uncertainty affect this region. objective study was determine potential impact Haiti for future periods (near-term: 2010-2039 mid-century: 2040-2069) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 4.5 8.5) defined by Fifth Assessment Report Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change (IPCC). Estimation Resource Environment Synthesis (CERES)-Rice model Decision Support Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) cropping system used perform simulations using local characteristics, meteorological data, management following calibration experimental data. Temperature (maximum minimum) predicted increase during all three rice-growing (spring-summer, summer-autumn, winter-spring). Under both RCPs (4.5 8.5), simulation results indicated that ensemble-mean (by 5.1% 6.6% 5.4% 8.3%, respectively) season 2.3% 3.6%). Although season, decrease 3.6% 7.1% 4.2% 9.6% near-term mid-century periods, respectively. These findings could assist implementation adaptation strategies mitigate projected negative Haiti.