Modeling service time reliability in urban ferry system

摘要: The urban ferry system can carry a large number of travelers, which may alleviate the pressure on road traffic. As an indicator its service quality, time reliability (STR) plays essential part in attracting travelers to system. A wide array studies have been conducted analyze STR land transportation. However, systems has received little attention transportation literature. In this study, model was established obtain systems. First, probability density function (PDF) provided by constructed. Considering deficiency queuing theory, PDF determined Bayes’ theorem. Then, validate function, results proposed were compared with those Monte Carlo simulation. With PDF, could be mathematically integration. Results showed how factors including frequency, capacity, schedule and waiting affected under different degrees congestion Based these results, some strategies for improving proposed. These findings are great significance increasing share ferries among various transport modes.