Climatic changes and the fate of mountain herbivores

摘要: Mountains are strongly seasonal habitats, which require special adaptations in wildlife species living on them. Population dynamics of mountain ungulates largely determined by the availability rich food resources to sustain lactation and weaning during summer. Increases temperature affect plant phenology nutritional quality. Cold-adapted plants occurring at lower elevations will shift higher ones, if available. We predicted what could happen populations based how climate change alter distribution pattern quality high-elevation vegetation, using “clover community-Apennine chamois Rupicapra pyrenaica ornata” system. From 1970 2014, increasing spring temperatures (2 °C) our study area led an earlier (25 days) onset green-up Alpine grasslands between 1700 2000 m, but not up. For 1970–2070, we have projected trends juvenile winter survival chamois, simulating trajectories occurrence clover, through models depicting four different scenarios. All scenarios suggested a decline Apennine its historical core range, next 50 years, from about 28% near-extinction 95%. The negative consequences changes presently ones future. Their effects vary with species-specific ecological behavioural flexibility ungulates, as well refugia. However, global shifts distributional ranges local decreases or extinctions should be expected, calling for farsighted measures adaptive management mountain-dwelling herbivores.