Spatial prediction of risk areas for vector transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi in the State of Paraná, southern Brazil

摘要: After obtaining certification of the absence transmission Trypanosoma cruzi by Triatoma infestans in 2006, other native species protozoan vectors have been found human dwellings within municipalities State Parana, Southern Brazil. However, spatial distribution T. and how climatic landscape combined variables explain are still poorly understood. The goal this study was to predict potential as a proxy for Chagas disease risk using Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) based on variables. We hypothesize that ENM both climate more powerful than climate-only or landscape-only models, will be true independent vector species. A total 2,662 records triatomines five were obtained community-based entomological surveillance from 2007 2013. with highest number specimens Panstrongylus megistus (73%; n = 1,943), followed geniculatus (15.4%; 411), Rhodnius neglectus (6.0%; 159), sordida (4.5%; 119) prolixus (1.1%; 30). Of total, 71.9% captured at intradomicile. infection observed 19.7% 2,472 examined insects. ENMs generated selected 1 km2 resolution. Zonal statistics used classifying occurrence synanthropic triatomines. integrated analysis suitability geographical generating good predictive models. Moreover, showed some northwest, north northeast Parana state higher transmission. This occurs because those regions present high values their vectors. frequent invasion houses infected clearly indicates greater inhabitants. More public health attention should given northern areas which presents suitabilities In conclusion, our results-through maps-showed effective identifying and, consequently, definition strategic actions prevent new cases Chagas' disease, reinforcing need continuous robust these areas.