Contrasting effects of climatic variability on the demography of a trans-equatorial migratory seabird.

摘要: Summary Large-scale seasonal climatic indices, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index or Southern Index (SOI), account for major variations in weather and climate around world may influence population dynamics many organisms. However, assessing extent of impacts on species their life-history traits requires reliable quantitative statistical approaches. We used a new analytical tool mark–recapture, multi-event modelling, to simultaneously assess variation multiple demographic parameters (i.e. adult survival, transient probability, reproductive skipping nest dispersal) at two Mediterranean colonies Cory's shearwater Calonectris diomedea, trans-equatorial migratory long-lived seabird. We also analysed impact breeding success colonies. We found clear temporal survival shearwaters, strongly associated large-scale SOI especially one (up 66% variance explained). hurricane season is modulated by coincides with migration wintering areas, directly affecting probabilities. was better predictor probabilities than frequency hurricanes; thus, we cannot discard an indirect additive effect via food availability. Accordingly, proportion transients correlated values, indicating higher costs first reproduction (resulting either mortality permanent when bad environmental conditions occurred during winter before reproduction. Breeding affected factors, NAO explaining c. 41% variance, probably result its timing peak abundance squid small pelagics, main prey shearwaters. No dispersal. Contrarily what expect organism, indexes had more pronounced less sensitive fitness dispersal The potential increase because global warming interact other change agents (such incidental bycatch predation alien species) nowadays impacting future viability populations.