Pandemic Influenza Simulation with Public Avoidance Behavior
作者： Wei Zhong , Tim Lant , Megan Jehn , Yushim Kim
DOI: 10.1007/978-1-4614-1665-4_10
关键词: Epidemic dynamics 、 Research context 、 Environmental health 、 Risk communication 、 Pandemic influenza 、 Risk perception 、 Outbreak 、 System dynamics model 、 Sensitivity analyses 、 Geography
摘要: This chapter explores how classical mathematical models for epidemic simulation can be modified to properly incorporate relevant social and behavioral dimensions. Using the 2009 H1N1 influenza outbreak in Arizona as research context, we a “Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed” (SEIR) model simulated it system dynamics model. The of influenza-related morbidity is examined, considering emergency risk communication public avoidance behavior during outbreak. Sensitivity analyses are performed explore impact variability uncertain parameters on community. We end this with discussion use models inform efforts prepare communities pandemic outbreaks.
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