Sunspot Activity Near Cycle Minimum and What it Might Suggest for Cycle 24, the Next Sunspot Cycle

作者: David H. Hathaway , Robert M. Wilson

DOI:

关键词: GeographySolar minimumSolar cycle 23SunspotSolar cycle 16ClimatologySolar cycle 11Solar cycle 14Solar cycle 12Solar cycle 10

摘要: In late 2008, 12-month moving averages of sunspot number, number spotless days, groups, area sunspots, and per group were reflective cycle minimum conditions for 24, these values being or near record value. The first day occurred in January 2004 the new-cycle, high-latitude spot was reported although old-cycle, low-latitude spots have continued to be seen through April 2009, yielding an overlap old new at least 16 mo. New-cycle became dominant over old-cycle September 2008. value weighted mean latitude sunspots May 2007, measuring 6.6 deg, highest-latitude followed June 11.7 deg. A length 150 mo is inferred 23, making it longest modern era. Based on both maximum-minimum amplitude-period relationships, 24 expected only average below-average size, peaking probably 2012 early 2013, unless proves a statistical outlier.

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