Individual variations in infectiousness explain long‐term disease persistence in wildlife populations

摘要: Viral disease persistence in species without a reservoir host is of importance for public health and management. But how can be explained? We developed spatially-explicit individual-based model that takes into account both ecological viral traits as well variable space to test hypotheses under debate. introduce novel concept modeling alternative courses at the individual level, causing transient infections or killing infected animals, with lethally having life-expectancy. systematically distinguish between invasion persistence. use classical swine fever (CSF), an economically very important livestock social host, wild boar, reference system rank Parameter values population demographics CSF epidemiology reflect current knowledge. Sensitivity analysis parameters revealed most factor profile mostly transient, i.e. surviving individuals requiring immunity, some chronically, long-term animals. Immune constantly produce susceptible offspring, while chronically act ‘super spreaders’ time. Thus, variations course level are factors determining persistence, which usually not taken prominent measure epidemiology, basic reproductive number R0, reflects ‘reproductive potential’ sub-population. discuss our results regard general issues epidemics management issues.