Offsetting unabated agricultural emissions with CO2 removal to achieve ambitious climate targets.

摘要: The Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6), which is broadly compatible with the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal by 1.5–2°C, contains substantial reductions in agricultural non-CO2 emissions besides deployment of Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR). Failing to mitigate methane and nitrous oxide could contribute an overshoot RCP2.6 warming about 0.4°C. We explore using additional CDR offset alternative emission pathways either remain constant or rise. assess effects on climate calculating rates under two different approaches: relying 100-year global potential conversion metric (GWP100) maintaining effective radiative forcing levels at exactly those RCP2.6. Using a reduced-complexity model, we find that leads systematic underestimation needed CDR, reaching only around 50% mitigation track. This mostly because underestimates, near term, from short-lived pollutants such as methane. test whether metrics, GWP20 GWP*, are more suitable for offsetting purposes, found they both lead overestimation requirements. Under pathways, holding total requires up twice amount already included examine costs this internalizing these several commodities. Assuming average cost $150/tCO2, increases prices 41% beef, 14% rice, 40% milk United States relative current retail prices. These figures significantly higher (for beef rice) scenario, potentially threatening food security welfare. Although policy delivers mechanism finance early remaining high may well hit other non-financial constraints can thus support, not substitute, reductions.