MONITORING DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORT TRAFFIC FORECASTS

摘要: The Department of Transport spends around found2 billion per year on major trunk road improvement schemes. These are justified by cost- benefit analysis, based traffic forecasts. However, questions can be asked about the reliability forecasts, capacity, and value for money highway In order to address these sorts questions, monitors using each improved section road. Traffic counts, roughly a after scheme opening, compared with forecasts used cost-benefit justification scheme. results seem show that many quite accurate, while few - example M25 appear spectacularly wrong. But careful analysis may different picture. This paper discusses need monitoring, methods compare forecast observed data, problems interpretation, extensions system, principal conclusions National Roads Programme. (A) For covering abstract seminar see IRRD 862693.