Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Maize Yield Water Constraints under Climate Change in Spain

摘要: Many studies have analyzed the impact of climate change on crop productivity, but comparing performance water management systems has rarely been explored. Because supply and demand in agro-systems may be affected by global shaping spatial patterns agricultural production, we should evaluate how where irrigation practices are effective mitigating effects. Here constructed simple, general models, based biological mechanisms a theoretical framework, which could useful explaining predicting productivity dynamics. We studied maize irrigated rain-fed at provincial scale, from 1996 to 2009 Spain, one most prominent “hot-spots” future projections. Our new approach allowed us to: (1) structural properties such as stability yield dynamics, (2) detect nonlinear responses (thresholds discontinuities), challenging usual linear way thinking, (3) examine losses due constraints identify clusters provinces that negatively warming. reduced uncertainty associated with impacts improving understanding relative contributions individual factors providing better comprehension key processes. identified stress being causes gap, detected vulnerable regions efforts research policy prioritized order increase productivity.