Evaluating future stress due to combined effect of climate change and rapid urbanization for Pasig-Marikina River, Manila

摘要: Abstract Considering the finite volume of fresh water resources, managing its quality and quantity sustainably is one greatest challenges because complex global changes. This work strives to predict combined effect urbanization climate change on in Pasig-Marikina River considering criticalities develop proactive plan by policy makers working sectors. an important source for different usage viz. domestic, industrial, agriculture recreation National Capital Region (NCR) Philippines. However, stationarity this river basin compromised changes human disturbances viz., change, rapid weak/non-structured government policies results severe pollution, makes long section unsuitable any use recent past. Therefore, presenting a comprehensive spatio-temporal status using transdisciplinary framework will be valuable guide implement better management within governance structure. In study, was analysed current future timescale population growth, land wastewater production treatment scenarios. Water Evaluation Planning (WEAP) model used pollution scenarios three indicators aquatic ecosystem health Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD), Chemical (COD) Nitrate (NO3). Comparison simulated parameters year 2015 2030 with 2011 (base year) clearly indicates that at rapidly deteriorate not suitable life terms major parameters. Also, even existing master plants are sufficient enough sustainable resource NCR, Philippines hence call immediate inclusive action.