Long-term Surface Elevation Change in Salt Marshes: a Prediction of Marsh Response to Future Sea-Level Rise

摘要: Accretion rates and surface elevation changes were measured in three natural salt marshes the Wadden Sea. Derived from these measurements, a simple predictive model was made which describes during more than 100 years of salt-marsh development at several sea-level rise scenarios. The tested with data on long-term successional stages marsh Schiermonnikoog (The Netherlands), where sites differ age few to years. The predicts all scenarios fast increase first development. Results showed very high similarity between prediction field-data. A scenario without revealed stabilization inundation frequency after approximately years. In mean sea-level, however, continues years, although slower pace. Previous studies expected coastal barrier keep pace rise, if lower 5 mm yr−1. We found that starts development, even is Shrinkage clay layer summer probably caused an deficit older marshes. This means long run (more 500 years) will degenerate islands, especially low elevation. New may develop higher elevation, are available.