Macroeconomic effects of the current crises in Japan and MENA countries - A model-based assessment of the medium term

摘要: Two events currently preoccupy global news: the political unrest in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) earthquake, tsunami nuclear catastrophe Japan. Both are very different its nature location, but they not only affect economic developments within these countries also across world. In current paper, macroeconomic effects of both a combination crises analysed by applying dynamic interindustry model. That allows to estimate impact on other economies year crisis consider adjustment process preceding years. Overall, analysis has shown that Japan’s natural disaster is likely have hardly any world economy general major trading partners particular. Moreover, long-run function like stimulation package economy. On contrary, reduction oil production due disruption MENA considerable depend country specifics concerning energy intensity, trade relations or degree industrialization efficiency. conclusion, shows heavily reacts sudden price changes less vulnerable ad-hoc shortages leading industrial economies.