Empirical determinants of measles metapopulation dynamics in England and Wales

摘要: A key issue in metapopulation dynamics is the relative impact of internal patch and coupling between patches. This problem can be addressed by analysing large spatiotemporal data sets, recording local global metapopulations. In this paper, we analyse measles meta-populations a case notification set, collected during pre-vaccination era England Wales. Specifically, use generalized linear statistical models to quantify importance influences (birth rate population size) regional on epidemic dynamics. Apart from proportional effect size totals, indicate patterns dynamic which depend current state epidemics. Birth geographic are not associated with major By contrast, minor epidemics--and especially incidence extinction infection--are influenced both birth geographical coupling. at lag four years provides best fit, reflecting delayed recruitment susceptibles school cohorts. hierarchical index spatial centres model. The model also indicates that epidemics more strongly than rate.