Sustainable agricultural development in a rural area in the Netherlands? Assessing impacts of climate and socio-economic change at farm and landscape level

摘要: Abstract Changes in climate, technology, policy and prices affect agricultural rural development. To evaluate whether this development is sustainable, impacts of these multiple drivers need to be assessed for indicators. In a case study area the Netherlands, bio-economic farm model, an agent-based land-use change regional emission model have been used simulate under two plausible global scenarios at both landscape level. Results show that area, climate will mainly negative economic (dairy gross margin, arable efficiency, milk production) warmer drier W + scenario, while are slightly positive G scenario with moderate change. Dairy farmers worse off than scenarios. Conversely, when embedded socio-economic Global Economy (GE) changes prices, projected impact, more offsetting impacts. Important is, however, environmental (global warming, terrestrial aquatic eutrophication) largely social (farm size, number farms, nature odour) mixed. combined Regional Communities (RC) average dairy margin particular negatively affected. Social similarly mixed as GE less severe. Our results suggest integrated assessments level can guide decision-makers spatial planning policies adaptation. As there always trade-offs between economic, social, stakeholders interact decide upon most important directions policies. This implies choice production income on one hand services other hand.