Endemic Freshwater Fish Range Shifts Related to Global Climate Changes: A Long-Term Study Provides Some Observational Evidence for the Mediterranean Area

摘要: Climate changes will lead to a worsening of the ecological conditions, in terms hydrological instability and rising water temperatures, Mediterranean rivers. Freshwater fishes inhabiting this area can be threatened near future by accelerating drought decreased connectivity. The main aim research was analyze distribution endemic freshwater Padogobius nigricans, Squalius lucumonis Telestes muticellus Tiber River basin (Italy), within proven period climate warming, increasing temperature droughts. A multivariate analysis conducted using fish environmental data collected 117 sites over years 1990–2017. For three species, population abundance, age structure body condition were analyzed. Detectability, occupancy, local extinction colonization processes also examined. We showed that S. T. have shifted their distributions upstream, likely order reach thermal optimum. nigricans did not move upstream significantly, since species is characterized limited vagility thus low dispersal capability context high river fragmentation. In study area, elevation barriers seem play key role extirpation processes; for probability with altitude, while P. an degree These results highlight how species-specific ability varying adaptability change.