Potential impacts of climate change on the distributions and diversity patterns of European mammals

摘要: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts an increase in global temperatures of between 1.48C and 5.88C during the 21st century, as a result elevated CO2 levels. Using bioclimatic envelope models, we evaluate potential impact climate change distributions species richness 120 native terrestrial non- volant European mammals under two IPCC's future climatic scenarios. Assuming unlimited no migration, respectively, our model that 1% or 5-9% risk extinction, while 32-46% 70-78% may be severely threatened (lose > 30% their current distribution) Under migration assumption endemic were predicted to strongly negatively affected by changes, widely distributed would more mildly affected. Finally, mammalian is become dramatically reduced Mediterranean region but towards northeast for higher elevations. Bioclimatic models do not account non-climatic factors such land-use, biotic interactions, human interference, dispersal history, results should there- fore seen first approximations magnitude changes.