Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World

摘要: The monography presents a mathematical model, "World 3", of the world for years 1900—2100. purpose model are conditional; inprecise projections dynamic behaviour modes five outputs: population, capital, food, non-renewable resources, and pollution. Models this global scope not new, they can be traced back even to ancient world, nevertheless from very beginning controversial. first class models is "ecological"; decisions based on ecological cautious about possibilities human expansion because unclear interactions clear bounds. second class, "technological", supposes that no unbreakable constraints mankind evolution exist. as Upanishads ("the vital essence in man same gnat, an elephant"), Genesis ("fill earth, subdue it; have dominion over fish sea, fowl air, every thing moveth upon earth"). authors claim philosophy their synthesis both elementary models. Nevertheless project was motivated by finitness resources such model. As it well known optimization experience course, too, just finitness, short horizon used be, longer criteria, bad decisions. And feedback theory, uncautious control unprecise may lead unstability.