Hull fouling marine invasive species pose a very low, but plausible, risk of introduction to East Antarctica in climate change scenarios

摘要: Aims: To identify potential hull fouling marine invasive species that could survive in East Antarctica presently and the future. Location: Australia's Antarctic continental stations: Davis, Mawson Casey, Antarctica; subantarctic islands: Macquarie Island Heard McDonald Islands. Methods: Our study uses a novel machine-learning algorithm to predict which currently known MIS shallow benthic ecosystems adjacent Australian research stations islands, where ship traffic is present. We used gradient boosted machine learning (XGBoost) with four important environmental variables (sea surface temperature, salinity, nitrate pH) develop models of suitable environments for each potentially species. then these determine if any three two islands be environmentally now under future climate scenarios. Results: Most were predicted unable at location between end this century; however, identified as current threats five change. Asterias amurensis was threat all locations. Main conclusions: This suggests risks are very low, but plausible, habitats near locations suggest precautionary approach needed by way surveillance monitoring region, particularly propagule pressure increases. While some adults their ability reach undergo successful reproduction considered unlikely based on knowledge.