Systematical evaluation of solar energy supply forecasts

作者: Robert Ulbricht , Martin Hahmann , Hilko Donker , Wolfgang Lehner

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-13290-7_9

关键词: Probabilistic forecastingOperations researchDemand forecastingEnergy (signal processing)Industrial engineeringPower (physics)Solar energyEngineeringRenewable energyPower demandProcess (engineering)

摘要: The capacity of renewable energy sources constantly increases world-wide and challenges the maintenance electric balance between power demand supply. To allow for a better integration solar supply into grids, lot research was dedicated to development precise forecasting approaches. However, there is still no straightforward easy-to-use recommendation standardized strategy. In this paper, classification solutions proposed in literature provided both weather- forecast models. Subsequently, we describe our idea process typical parameters possibly influencing selection specific model. We discuss model combination as an optimization option evaluate approach comparing different statistical algorithms against flexible hybrid models case study.

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