Assessment on the Effect of Climate Change on Streamflow in the Source Region of the Yangtze River, China

摘要: Tuotuo River basin, known as the source region of Yangtze River, is key area where impact climate change has been observed on many hydrological processes this central Tibetan Plateau. In study, we examined six Global Climate Models (GCMs) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios. First, already impacted was analyzed, based historical data available and then, simulation results GCMs RCPs were used for future scenario assessments. Results indicated that annual mean temperature will likely be increased, ranging from −0.66 °C to 6.68 during prediction periods (2020s, 2050s 2080s), while in precipitation ranged −1.18% 66.14%. Then, a well-known distributed soil vegetation model (DHSVM) utilized evaluate effects streamflow dynamics. The seasonal streamflows, predicted by scenarios, also shown increase, −0.52% 22.58%. Watershed managers regulators can use findings study better implement their conservation practices face change.