Use of high-resolution WRF simulations to forecast lightning threat

摘要: Recent observational studies have confirmed the existence of a robust statistical relationship between lightning flash rates and amount large precipitating ice hydrometeors aloft in storms. This is exploited, conjunction with capabilities cloud-resolving forecast models such as WRF, to explicitly threat from convective storms using selected output fields model forecasts. The simulated vertical flux graupel at -15C shape reflectivity profile are tested this study proxies for charge separation processes their associated risk. Our method differs others that it entirely based on high-resolution simulation output, without reliance any climatological data. short [6-8 h) simulations conducted number case which three-dmmensional validation data North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array available. Experiments indicate initialization WRF 2 km grid Eta boundary conditions, Doppler radar radial velocity fields, METAR ACARS y&eld satisfactory simulations. __nalyses suggests both approaches, when properly calibrated, can yield reasonable forecasts, although an ensemble approach probably desirable order reduce tendency misplacement modeled hurt accuracy forecasts also compared other more traditional means forecasting thunderstorms, those inspection available potential energy field.