Floods in future climates: a review

作者: P.H. Whitfield

DOI: 10.1111/J.1753-318X.2012.01150.X

关键词: Environmental scienceFlooding (psychology)ClimatologyPrecipitationSnowpackAtmosphereClimate changeSnowmeltFlood mythWater cycle

摘要: At the global scale, warming of atmosphere will increase capacity to hold and accelerate redistribution water in atmosphere. This suggests that flood-generating processes linked are likely increase. However, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections future floods involve extremely complex issues defy simple generalisations. Warming alter other aspects cycle increasing evaporation, changing precipitation patterns intensity, also affecting involved surface storage water, including snowpack generation, snowmelt, river ice break-up, glacial melt. Many these active flood changes may cause decrease as well take place not at scale but relatively local making generalisations about flooding climates difficult uncertain. role land use is generally unresolved, a watershed land-use effects can be important meteorological processes. review shows while meteorologically driven expected changed climate, precise pronouncement regarding all unwise, many types respond differently climate because events, remain important.

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