Refining predictions of climate change impacts on plant species distribution through the use of local statistics

摘要: Abstract Bioclimate envelope models are often used to predict changes in species distribution arising from climate. These typically based on observed correlations between current and climate data. One limitation of this basic approach is that the relationship modelled assumed be constant space; analysis global with spatially stationary. Here, it shown by using a local regression analysis, which allows under study vary space, rather than conventional possible increase accuracy bioclimate modelling. This demonstrated for Spotted Meddick Great Britain data relating three time periods, including predictions 2080s two change scenarios. Species were available periods studied allowed comparison model outputs derived analyses. For both area receiver operating characteristics curve statistics was significantly higher analysis; comparisons also undertaken an recognised dependent nature sets compared. Marked differences future predicted analyses evident highlight need further consideration issues modelling ecological variables.