Can they keep up with climate change? – Integrating specific dispersal abilities of protected Odonata in species distribution modelling

摘要: The effects of climate change on the distribution species are typically inferred using bioclimatic envelope models, assuming either no or unrestricted dispersal abilities. Information species-specific abilities, especially animals, is rarely incorporated. 2. We analysed European records two damselflies and four dragonflies pro- tected by Habitats Directive Union. In addition to unre- stricted scenarios, we considered distances based literature information improve realism in assessing conservation implications change. model HadCM3 emission scenario A2 were applied project potential changes occurrence probabilities up 2035. As mod- elling algorithms, generalised linear models (GLM) boosted regression trees (BRT) used. 3. Coenagrion ornatum, mercuriale Ophiogomphus ceci- lia projected lose range (up )68%) when incorporating specific distances, while they extend their +23%) scenario. Furthermore, suitable climatic conditions tend decline for Leucorrhinia albifrons Leucorrhina caudalis )73%), whereas Leucor- rhinia pectoralis gain area +37%) subsequently successful breeding. Cross- validated performance (AUC values) ranges between 0.77 0.92. 4. integration knowledge about spe- cies promises estimates management. Contrasting results under different scenarios highlight importance research species' ecology including distances.