Forecasting the coal production: Hubbert curve application on Turkey's lignite fields

摘要: Abstract The dependence on imported energy sources is one of the biggest challenges that Turkey and many other similar countries face in 21st Century gap between production consumption cannot be decreased without increasing domestic production. Forecasting therefore plays a vital role order to able develop sound policies towards maintaining sustainable development. However, although this question essential respect especially for import dependent countries, previous literature surprisingly scarce. This paper, therefore, will important future studies estimation We first analyzed lignite Turkish Coal Enterprises (TKI) from historical perspective then forecasted by using Hubbert curve, depletion rate, decline curve methodologies. concluded largest fields are about enter declining phase upcoming years most reserves remain untapped if business-as-usual continues future. methodology interpretations may used developing which deeply suffer dependency.