Chilling damage in a changing climate in coastal landscapes of the subtropical zone: a case study from south Florida

摘要: Freeze events significantly influence landscape structure and community composition along subtropical coastlines. This is particularly true in south Florida, where such disturbances have historically contributed to patch diversity within the mangrove forest, played a part limiting its inland transgression. With projected increases mean global temperatures, instances are likely become much less frequent region, contributing reduction heterogeneity forest itself. To understand process more clearly, we explored dynamics of Dwarf following two chilling that produced freeze-like symptoms, i.e., leaf browning, desiccation, mortality, interpreted resulting changes context current winter temperatures future scenarios. Structural effects from 1996 event were dramatic, with mortality tissue damage concentrated among individuals comprising forest’s low canopy. disturbance promoted understory plant development provided an opportunity for Laguncularia racemosa share dominance Rhizophora mangle. Mortality due severe 2001 was greatest understory, probably because recovery protective canopy earlier freeze still incomplete. Stand static over same period nearby unimpacted sites. The probability reaching as those recorded at meteorological station ( 31C) under several warming scenarios simulated by applying 11 incremental temperature model developed 42-year record. According model, frequency similar decreased once every 1.9 years present 3.4 32.5 1 41C warming, respectively. large decrease these would eliminate important mechanism maintains structure, promotes compositional diversity.