Risk of Tropical Cyclones Over the Mediterranean Sea in a Climate Change Scenario

摘要: The possible development of tropical cyclones over the Mediterranean Sea due to anthropogenic climate change is analysed here. A previous paper (Gaertner et al., 2007) has shown for first time that there a risk such development, based on regional model simulations high emissions scenario. combined use an ensemble models nested in same global and cyclone phase space method from Hart (2003) as objective way detect characteristics allowed us this possibility. results show large spread among models, ranging no intensity future scenario strong cyclones. spatial temporal comparison sea surface temperature with ocurrence intense though variable important, it's not only important factor. An adequate synoptic setting needed, high-latitude blocking conditions upper-level cut-off low Sea. Several uncertainties remain be analysed, but existence theoretical mechanism formation fact already some observed partially give plausibility risk.