作者: Jan Moeyersons , Pierre Ozer , Muhindo Sahani , Philippe Trefois , Ine Vandecasteele
DOI:
关键词: Urban area 、 Return period 、 Wet season 、 Precipitation 、 Geography 、 Flood myth 、 Physical geography 、 Demography
摘要: In recent years, the city of Butembo faced unprecedented damaging floods. This study aims to analyze rainfall variations recorded at meteorological station Agricultural and Veterinary Technical Institute (ITAV) in between 1957 2010. It appears that features have remained relatively stable over analyzed period.Linear upward trends were observed for simple day intensity index (SDII) total number days characterized by precipitation >= 10 mm (P10). contrast, seven other indices a decreasing trend: annual (PTOT), wet (rainfall � 1 mm) (JP), 20 (P20), maximum daily (Px1J), frequency intense (P95p), extreme (P99p) very (P99,5p) rainfall. However, none these statistically significant. Although floods recurrence became prevalent, reports events do not reveal exceptional rains past few years. Yet, all rainfalls are considered as normal since their return period is less than six suggests significant increase flood risk mainly due human impacts urban area increasing vulnerability. also underlines length rainy season shortening, undermining agriculture production therefore food security.