A methodology to estimate security of supply in electricity generation: results for Germany until 2030 given a high level of intermittent electricity feed-in
作者： Dietmar Lindenberger , Katharina Grave , Moritz Paulus
DOI:
关键词: Electricity retailing 、 Environmental economics 、 Electricity market 、 Electricity generation 、 Wind power 、 Distributed generation 、 Stand-alone power system 、 Energy development 、 Economics 、 Intermittent energy source 、 Commerce
摘要: In this paper, we develop a methodology for deriving consistent measure supply adequacy in the power generation sector. We especially consider secured capacity of intermittent renewable energy sources such as wind. Availability conventional plants is estimated through stochastic convolution unscheduled non-usabilities. employ our to security Germany until 2030. A detailed market analysis that are currently being built or planned provides support short term. For long term, rely on large-scale dispatch and investment model European sector account embedding German electricity market. analyze two scenarios: one with prolongation nuclear phase-out. Our results show that, even though renewables only provide very limited capacity, can be assured 2015. need backup increases well imports.
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