Development of Regional Climate Scenarios Using a Downscaling Approach

摘要: As the debate on potential climate change continues, it is becoming increasingly clear that main concerns to general public are impacts of a in societal and biophysical systems. In order address these researchers need realistic, plausible scenarios suitable for use analysis. It purpose this paper present downscaling method useful developing types grounded both General Circulation Model simulations change, situ station data. Free atmosphere variables four gridpoints over Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas (MINK) region from control transient GFDL were used with thirty years nearby data generate surface maximum minimum air temperatures precipitation. The free first subject principal components analysis component (PC) scores multiple regression relate upper-air temperature Coefficients then PC model statistical distributions downscaled precipitation run compared those observed Results examined. Lastly, annual time series results show less warming period simulation than produced directly model.