Model Evaluation in Macroeconometrics: from Cowles foundation to DSGE models

摘要: This paper reconsiders the developments of model evaluation in macroeconometrics over last forty years. Our analysis starts from failure Cowles foundation models. The different diagnosis this are then analyzed to classify them two groups: explanations related problems theoretical models that lead identification relevant econometric and underlying statistical misspecification model. Developments macroeconometric after discussed illustrate how critiques have initiated approaches macroeconometrics. evolution what has been considered consensus approach thirty years is followed. main conclusion based on so unsuccessful logic criticism moved early seventies might apply almost exactly DSGE-VAR first decade new millenium. JEL Classification Numbers: C52, E17