MODELLING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE AND LAND USE CHANGES ON WATER QUALITY IN THE GUADIANA BASIN AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL AREA

摘要: Abstract The increasing pressure on water resources and the management problems related to it, highlight need of a multidisciplinary approach in hydrological, social, economic ecological field, applicable every considered catchment. Changes land use means changes quantity quality resources; this scenario could be more severe with intensification some chemical physical processes, as consequence climate change. Based concept, present work has been developed support information systems tools decision making process, from integrated river coastal management. For purpose, it is used hydrological model, using Guadiana catchment case study. model calibrated validated for flow nitrate load satisfactory results, then was simulation. Furthermore, simulations were done under two future Climate Change (CC, Representative Concentration Pathway - RCP 4.5 8.5) scenarios, three Land Use (LUC) scenarios combination both them, evaluate their contribution nutrient concentration that reaches estuary. In study, an extension change forest olive groves would produce greater nutrients most abrasive (RCP 8.5). Such beneficial productivity estuarine ecosystem. same use, instead, not recommended 4.5, cause net reduction supply With support, can sought solutions policies incentives are convenient allow control, prevent or correct deterioration bodies thereby accomplish levels required by European Directives.