Calendar-based short-term forecasting of daily average electricity demand
作者： M. Kumru , P. Y. Kumru
DOI: 10.1109/IEOM.2015.7093940
关键词: Demand curve 、 Demand forecasting 、 Electricity 、 Probabilistic forecasting 、 Term (time) 、 Regression analysis 、 Consumption (economics) 、 Economics 、 Electricity market 、 Econometrics
摘要: Short-term electricity demand forecast becomes more and important due to recent deregulation of market in Turkey. It is affected mainly from several factors that are working days, weekends, feasts, festivals, temperatures. In the study, contribution these consumption be analyzed modeled with nonlinear (quadratic) regression models. First, variation Turkey's daily for years 2012 2013 determined respect actual weather temperatures calendar events. Then, models constructed separately function weekdays, public holidays (feast festivals), total averages. The tested on data year 2014 its twelve months period. Mean absolute percentage errors calculated compared each results indicate calendar-based short-term forecasting model slightly outperforms non-calendar-based model, seems reliable demand.
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