Quantitative Forecasting of Major Solar Flares
作者： Manolis K. Georgoulis , David M. Rust
DOI: 10.1086/518718
关键词: Solar cycle 23 、 Conditional probability 、 Coronal mass ejection 、 Champ magnetique 、 Astronomy 、 Solar flare 、 Photosphere 、 Astrophysics 、 Physics
摘要: We define the effective connected magnetic field, Beff, a single metric of flaring potential in solar active regions. calculated Beff for 298 regions (93 X- and M-flaring, 205 nonflaring) as recorded by SOHO/MDI during 10 yr period covering much cycle 23. find that is robust criterion distinguishing from nonflaring A well-defined 12 hr conditional probability major flares depends solely on Beff. This exceeds 0.95 M-class X-class if > 1600 G 2100 G, respectively, while maximum Beff-values are near 4000 G. Active do not give < 200 750 respectively. conclude an efficient flare-forecasting can be computed timely basis readily available data.
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