Evaluation of Earth system models using modern and palaeo-observations: the state-of-the-art

摘要: Earth system models are increasing in complexity and incorporating more processes than their predecessors, making them important tools for studying the global carbon cycle. However, coupled behaviour has only recently been examined any detail, yielded a very wide range of outcomes, with climate-carbon cycle that represent land-use change simulating total land stores by 2100 vary as much 600 Pg C given same emissions scenario. This large uncertainty is associated differences how key simulated different models, illustrates necessity determining which most realistic using rigorous model evaluation methodologies. Here we assess state-of-the-art respect to particular emphasis on simulation biospheric processes. We examine some new advances remaining uncertainties relating (i) modern palaeo data (ii) metrics evaluation, discuss strategies, such inclusion pre-calibration, combined process- system-level use emergent constraints, can contribute towards development robust schemes. An increasingly data-rich environment offers opportunities but it also challenge, knowledge about required order determine methodologies move field ESM from "beauty contest" toward useful constraints behaviour.