A prediction market for toxic assets

摘要: We propose the development of a prediction market to provide form collective intelligence for forecasting prices "toxic assets" be transferred from Irish banks National Asset Management Agency. Such allows participants assume stake in security whose value is tied future event. that securities are created hinges on transfer amount paid loans agency bank. In essence, bets accepted whether price higher or lower than quoted figure. The indicate expected costs toxic assets. Prediction markets offer proven means aggregating distributed knowledge pertaining estimates uncertain quantities and robust strategic manipulation. runs parallel pricing procedure individual assets conducted by government agency. advocate an approach whereby chosen as convex combination agency's internal estimate market. argue this will substantially reduce cognitive burden improve accuracy, speed scalability pricing. This also offers empowering both property experts non-experts cost-effective transparent manner.